UFC 286 predictions -- Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3: Fight card, odds, prelims, preview, expert picks (2024)

On Saturday night, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards meet in a rubber match for the welterweight championship in the main event of UFC 286. Their previous meeting saw Usman dominate the fight before Edwards scored a knockout with a head kick in the final minute of Round 5, ending Usman's long reign as champion.

Usman has been the better fighter throughout their previous two meetings, winning nearly every moment of both fights, but it is the Edwards head kick that is the moment that truly stands out in their rivalry.

"It's weird because on the ride to the hospital that night, I was already over it," Usman told "Morning Kombat" this week. "I was over it. When you feel that sense of relief of all the expectations, you just hear it all quiet down. All of the people that were jumping on the ship making it heavy and needed to go, now have kind of jumped off.

"It makes the sport fun for me and it wasn't as much fun with all the noise. I love the position I ascended to and I appreciated it because I know I put in all the work I did over the years. But it wasn't as necessarily as fun as the journey. I love that I get to really enjoy the sport again. I've enjoyed the times of me and my daughter getting to drive to the gym every day, there and back."

Can't get enough boxing and MMA? Get the latest in the world of combat sports from two of the best in the business. Subscribe to Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell for the best analysis and in-depth news, including a complete preview of UFC 286 below.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let's take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 286 fight card, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

  • Kamaru Usman -240 vs. Leon Edwards (c) +200, welterweight championship
  • Rafael Fiziev -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +190, lightweights
  • Gunnar Nelson -370 vs. Bryan Barberena +290, welterweights
  • Casey O'Neill -175 vs. Jennifer Maia +150, women's flyweights
  • Marvin Vettori -280 vs. Roman Dolidze +230, middleweights
  • Jack Shore -500 vs. Makwan Amirkhani +380, featherweights
  • Omar Morales -110 vs. Chris Duncan -110, middleweights
  • Sam Patterson -280 vs. Yanal Ashmoz +230, lightweights
  • Muhammad Mokaev -900 vs. Jafel Filho +600, flyweights
  • Lerone Murphy -175 vs. Gabriel Santos +150, featherweights
  • Christian Leroy Duncan -210 vs. Dusko Todorovic +175, middleweights
  • Jake Hadley -400 vs. Malcolm Gordon +310, flyweights
  • Joanne Wood -170 vs. Luana Carolina +145, women's flyweights
  • Ludovit Klein -190 vs. Jai Herbert +160, lightweights
  • Julianna Miller -440 vs. Veronica Macedo +350, women's flyweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card.Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of "Morning Kombat"), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 286 picks, predictions

Edwards (c) vs. UsmanUsmanUsman
Gaethje vs. FizievFizievFiziev
Nelson vs. BarberenaBarberenaNelsonNelsonNelsonBarberena
O'Neill vs. MaiaO'NeillO'Neill
Vettori vs. DolidzeDolidzeVettoriVettori
Records to date (2023)

Edwards vs. Usman

Campbell:It took Edwards producing a 10-fight unbeaten streak and a dramatic fifth-round knockout of Usman in their rematch last summer for "Rocky" to finally get his due as a legit welterweight title contender (and now a champion). Yet for as inspirational a moment as his stunning head kick turned out to be, Edwards enters the trilogy as the betting underdog once again. And there's good reason to believe Usman when he said the loss had more to do with him losing focus than anything else after he dominated the three previous rounds before Edwards finished the fight. Usman, even as he closes in on age 36, remains a more dominant grappler and a better overall mixed martial artist than his British rival and has largely proved that over the eight rounds between them. With newfound motivation to regain his title, look for Usman to handle his business as deliberately as possible by backing Edwards up and using the threat of a takedown to open up his striking.

Brookhouse:I think there's a very legitimate chance Usman was broken by a single kick. We've seen plenty of elite fighters who suffered one knockout and were never the same again, especially later on in their career. That said, I just can't go with Edwards as the pick here. Before that one Edwards kick, Usman had dominated the fight. Edwards looked totally defeated in the corner round after round. What's more likely here? Usman falls victim to a big one-shot KO or this fight plays out like all but one second of their two prior meetings?

Mahjouri: Reducing Edwards' win over Usman to a lucky shot is disrespectful. Usman was too comfortable in the closing minutes of the fight and fell into Edwards' perfectly-laid trap. It's also worth noting that Edwards was struggling with the elevation in their second meeting. Still, Usman was the better fighter for the vast majority of that fight. It's unfair to count out Usman, who was 56 seconds away from tying Anderson Silva's all-time win streak record, quite yet. He should still wield the wrestling advantage and can do damage with his punches. Usman's clearest path to victory is grinding out a decision against the fence as he did in his first fight with Jorge Masvidal. It won't sit well with the London crowd, but it's Usman's job to make them happy. Expect a competitive fight, but one that should go to the former champion.

Fiziev vs. Gaethje

Campbell:Armed with a six-fight win streak, including a trio of brutal knockouts, Fiziev might be catching the dangerous Gaethje at just the right time after "The Highlight" twice came up empty in undisputed title bids over the past three years. At 34, and given the incredible mileage accrued in recent years as one of the most exciting and barbaric fighters in UFC history, Gaethje's inevitable decline will likely happen quickly once it begins. Provided Fiziev is able to keep his distance from the calculated brawler and snipe from the outside, Gaethje's lack of commitment to his own wrestling attack makes him very hittable in the standup.

Mahjouri:Fiziev is a force on the feet. A decorated Muay Thai striker, Fiziev has scored knockouts in eight of his 12 MMA fights. Gaethje is one you should never count out and he possesses the ferocious spirit to knock out anyone in the lightweight division. Plus, Gaethje tells CBS Sports he's more likely than ever to lean on his collegiate wrestling background. The problem there is that Gaethje has never actually attempted a takedown in the UFC and Fiziev has a stellar 92% takedown defense. Gaethje won't make it easy, but Fiziev has a good chance of cracking Gaethje's weathered chin over 15 minutes.

Wise:While it is true that the damage accrued by Gaethje is due to catch up with him, getting the brawling brute as an underdog here just feels too juicy to pass up. Fiziev is a well-rounded fighter who can pick away at a distance. But Gaethje tends to bring the fight out of everyone he faces by sheer will. Just ask Charles Oliveira, who many expected to wrestle him to the mat early but instead chose to stand and trade with the former interim titleholder before eventually scoring the submission. Gaethje has a way of making fighters fight his style and until he is truly finished by one of the elite still active, I'll side with "The Highlight" to produce again.

Nelson vs. Barberena

Campbell:A surprising three-fight win streak, which ended in his submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos last December, gave Barberena the confidence (and job security) to put thoughts on an early retirement aside at age 33. He has become an interesting overachiever as a celebrated brawler who has sharpened his striking enough to surprise veteran fighters like Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. Even though Nelson is technically a step up in class from Barberena's recent wins, his own repeated layoffs, which include just one fight in the last three years, have weakened his reputation. Barberena will need to push a pace and lure Nelson into a slugfest, but he has the gas tank and willingness to win the fight due to his high volume and durability.

Brookhouse: Barberena's wrestling is just not up to the level it needs to be against someone with Nelson's skills. Nelson is a pest on the feet with his karate-based striking and that will force Barberena into trying to attack with big blitzes. That kind of forward rush just opens up opportunities for Nelson to take the fight to the ground, where this becomes a total mismatch. Barberena coming in on short notice with the deficiencies he has in wrestling and grappling just is not going to walk out of this one with a win.

Mahjouri:Nelson hasn't left much of an impression on MMA fans, but that's more because of his quiet demeanor and inconsistent fight schedule. His five career losses ordered by most recent are Gilbert Burns, Edwards, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Demian Maia and Rick Story. That is a pretty high level of opposition. Barberena is a slugger coming off a submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos. Nelson has only been knocked out once in 24 professional fights and has 12 submissions to his credit. It may be too late for Nelson to make a serious run at the top, but at 34 years old he has the tools and competition experience to shut down Barberena's brawling style.

Vettori vs. Dolidze

Brookhouse: This fight feels better as an add-on to a parlay with Vettori -280 than a standalone. Vettori is good at a grinding, patient approach to fighting. Dolidze has had plenty of success as a professional, with only one loss in his career. But according to UFC Stats, Dolidze has just a 33% takedown defense, which puts him in a very bad spot against someone like Vettori, who will look to smother, take the fight to the ground and smother some more. In a three-round fight, that's a solid recipe for a Vettori decision victory.

Who wins Edwards vs. Usman at UFC 286? And how exactly does each fight end?Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 286, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $6,200 in 2022, and find out.

UFC 286 predictions -- Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3: Fight card, odds, prelims, preview, expert picks (2024)


What are the odds for Usman 3? ›

Usman is a -260 favorite (risk $260 to win $100), while Edwards comes back at +210 in the latest UFC 286 odds for Edwards vs. Usman 3. The co-main event features a showdown between explosive lightweight contenders with Rafael Fiziev (-235) taking on Justin Gaethje (+195).

Who won Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 3? ›

UFC Leon Edwards defeats Kamaru Usman in London!

How did Leon Edwards win against Usman? ›

Edwards evaded two more takedown attempts in the final round and caught Usman with an uppercut, but took a hit to the body as his title defence went down to the wire. Edwards had ended Usman's long reign as champion with a kick to the Nigerian's head and neck in the fifth round in Salt Lake City in August at UFC 278.

How much will Leon Edwards make against Usman? ›

As per the report, Edwards' guaranteed payout for the trilogy win against Usman was $542,000 with a projected figure that could reach $1 million after adding incentives.

Who is favored to win UFC 286? ›

He had held it since early 2019. Edwards (20-3) looks to prove that his win against Usman (20-2) was no fluke. He'll have the backing of the hometown crowd in his first title defense. Despite knocking out Usman in their last meeting, the Brit is a +200 moneyline underdog, and Usman is a -250 favorite.

How much did Drake bet on Usman? ›

Drake put out two tickets on his official social media handles just before the start of UFC 278 at the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. Drake bet $200,000 on Usman to defeat Edwards on the first ticket. The other was a combination of victory for Usman to win and also for a Jose Aldo victory worth $230,000.

Who did Leon Edwards lose to? ›

Leon Edwards lost his first fight with Kamaru Usman and was on the way to losing the second one before landing the head kick heard 'round the world.

How rich is Leon Edwards? ›

What is Leon Edwards net worth? According to The Sports Daily, Leon Edwards' net worth is estimated to be $1.5 Million.

Who has Leon Edwards lost to in UFC? ›

Leon Edwards Record: 21-3-0 (1 NC)
lossLeon Edwards Kamaru Usman26 48
winLeon Edwards Pawel Pawlak36 24
winLeon Edwards Seth Baczynski3 0
lossLeon Edwards Claudio Silva33 34
13 more rows

Who has Usman lost to? ›

UFC 286: Kamaru Usman Loses Welterweight Title Rematch To Leon Edwards.

How much is UFC 286 PPV? ›

UFC 286 PPV price: What is the cost? Fans could watch UFC on ESPN and ESPN+ for those who live in the US. The price for the pay-per-view is $79.99. UFC fans who have a fight pass subscription could also watch it there.

What time is UFC 286 main card? ›

The main card is set to get underway at 9 p.m. GMT / 5 p.m. ET with the main event cagewalks scheduled for 12 a.m. GMT / 8 p.m. ET.

How much did Leon Edwards get paid for UFC 286? ›

FightersGuaranteed Purse+ Win bonusTotal Payouts
Leon Edwards$500k + $100k$1292k
Kamaru Usman$750k + 0$1632k
Mar 19, 2023

How much did Colby Covington make UFC 286? ›

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3: How much money will Colby Covington get paid for being the backup fighter in Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 3? That said, Covington earned a hefty $500k win bonus against Masvidal, which doubled his income from what he earned at UFC 268 against Kamaru Usman.

How much did Bellator pay Usman? ›

The disclosed fight purses for Bellator 292 have now been revealed by the California State Athletic Commission, with Nurmagomedov and Henderson both earning six-figure paychecks. The lightweights each took home $150,000 with no win bonus after Nurmagomedov finished Henderson in the first round with a rear-naked choke.

Who was favored McGregor or Khabib? ›

While McGregor owns wide-ranging experience in multiple weight divisions, Khabib continues to lead the way on the UFC 229 odds as a -155 favorite (wager $155 to win $100) in his first-ever title defense.

What are the odds on UFC 287? ›

The UFC 287 odds from Caesars Sportsbook lists Adesanya as the -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100), and Pereira is priced at +115. In the co-main event, explosive welterweight contenders collide when Gilbert Burns (-500) takes on Jorge Masvidal (+375).

How to read odds? ›

Whereas negative (-) odds tell you what you have to bet on the favorite to win $100, positive (+) odds tell you how much you'll win for every $100 you wager on the underdog. So, a team with odds of +120 would payout $120 for every $100 wager.

Why did Drake lose his bet? ›

The issue was that Drake "bet in a market where extra time isn't counted and the result is determined based on the score after 90 minutes of play," according to Vulture. Had the wager paid off, the "God's Plan" singer would've walked away with $2.75 million - a win of $1.75 million.

Did Drake bet $500 million dollars? ›

Drake drops $500,000 bet backing Jon Jones to finish Ciryl Gane at UFC 285.

Who did Drake bet 500000 on in UFC? ›

He recently bet $500,000 on a Jones finish, putting $250,000 on a potential submission, and another $250,000 on a knockout. The prop bets for the finishes stand to pay out $1.7 million or $1.3 million, respectively, if Jones gets the finish over Gane.

Why did Edwards lose a point? ›

Edwards committed a massive mistake in the third round when he grabbed the fence during a takedown attempt. Referee Herb Dean deemed the foul blatant enough to deduct a point, which threatened to erase Edwards' early lead on the scorecards.

Why did Leon lose a point? ›

A massive, fight-changing moment occurred in Round 3 when Edwards was deducted a point by referee Herb Dean for a flagrant cage grab on an Usman takedown attempt. The foul was one of many for Edwards throughout the fight, who was also warned about groin strikes and a glove grab.

Who did Leon Edwards best? ›

Leon Edwards shook up the MMA world Saturday when he knocked out long-reigning welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in the final minute of their rematch.

How rich is Israel Adesanya? ›

Israel Adesanya Net Worth 2023
Net Worth:$12 Million
Salary:$1 Million +
Monthly Income:$75,000 +
Date of Birth:July 22, 1989
6 more rows
Apr 22, 2023

How rich is Leon Black? ›

Black is a co-founder of Apollo Global Management, an alternative asset manager with about $548 billion in assets under management. The New York-based firm specializes in leveraged buyouts, distressed debt, real estate investments and publicly traded funds. Black stepped down as chairman of Apollo in March 2021.

How rich is Anthony Joshua? ›

In 2020, Forbes reported that Joshua's net worth was £38.1million ($47m). According to SportsLens, Joshua's win over Franklin has seen his net worth rocket to £120m. The Watford local has earned millions over his last 10 fights and it looks as if it could get better for the heavyweight.

Why did Masvidal pull out Leon Edwards? ›

Masvidal was set to take on Leon Edwards on the main card, only to pull out of the fight due to an undisclosed injury.

How many times has Leon lost? ›

The UFC welterweight champion has a solid 20-3 MMA record, winning 7 of his fights by knockout, 5 of which came in the first round, as well as another 3 via submission. In speaking of his defeats, the first was against Delroy McDowell, which he lost as a result of a disqualification but that didn't happen in the UFC.

How many times has Leon Edwards lost? ›

Leon Edwards' MMA record stand at 20 wins, 3 losses and 1 no contest. Only two of those losses have come in the UFC, one to Claudio Silva on debut in November 2014 and the other to the man who would become champion, Kamaru Usman in December 2015.

Who is the only fighter to beat Usman? ›

Leon Edwards defends his title with hard-fought majority decision to beat Kamaru Usman in UFC 286 main event - MMA Fighting.

Who defeated Adesanya? ›

Pereira beat Adesanya via fifth-round TKO to win the title at UFC 281 last November at Madison Square Garden. Pereira also beat Adesanya twice in kickboxing, the most recent time by knockout in 2017. He's the only man to ever knock Adesanya out.

Who has the most title defenses in UFC history? ›

Jon Jones – UFC Light Heavyweight Champion (1,501 Days)

Jones' 14 title fight victories and his 11 title defenses have led to many calling him the MMA G.O.A.T. Overall, Jones has 20 wins in the light heavyweight division and he is unbeaten in his last 18 UFC fights.

How much is Edward vs Usman 3 PPV? ›

Kamaru Usman 3 price: How much does UFC 286 cost? In the U.S., the UFC 286 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 286 is $79.99 for current subscribers.

How many PPV did Colby vs Masvidal sell? ›

Sports Business Journal reports that the event sold more than 400,000 pay-per-view (PPV) buys, making it the best-selling UFC event of 2022. While this is the first event of the year in which PPV numbers have been leaked, we now have a ceiling for the previous four events of the year.

How much do UFC pay-per-view fights cost? ›

Every Fight Night comes with your ESPN+ subscription, while PPV events cost an additional $79.99 per event. Whether you purchase a PPV event or not, all UFC PPV events become available for replay to all ESPN+ subscribers 16 days after the initial event.

Are UFC tickets expensive? ›

UFC - Ultimate Fighting Championship ticket prices for currently scheduled events are starting as low as $74.00 with the most expensive prices ranging up to $8719.00. The average price to attend a UFC - Ultimate Fighting Championship event is around $1043.20. The upcoming UFC 289: Nunes vs.

Who won Usman vs Edwards 1? ›

UFC 286 results, highlights: Leon Edwards scores majority decision to retain title over Kamaru Usman.

Will UFC 286 be free? ›

Both events are free and open to the public.

What are the odds for Patrick vs Usman? ›

Usman Nurmagomedov
Usman Nurmagomedov-700-11.3%
Patrik Pietila+450
Bellator 263 Jul 31st 2021
Usman Nurmagomedov-400-16.8%▼
14 more rows

What are the odds for Usman vs Pitbull? ›

Bellator MMA odds have Usman Nurmagomedov as the massive betting favorite at -600 going up against someone that would be on the “Mt. Rushmore” of Bellator. These lines are appalling to see for Pitbull, who is currently the +425 underdog.

What are the Vegas odds for Usman vs Covington 2? ›

Usman is a -290 favorite (risk $290 to win $100), while Covington is a +245 underdog in the latest UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

What are the odds for UFC 287? ›

UFC 287 odds
  • Alex Pereira: +115. Israel Adesanya: -135.
  • Gilbert Burns: -490. Jorge Masvidal: +390.
  • Rob Font: +155. Adrian Yanez: -180.
  • Kevin Holland: -245. Santiago Ponzinibbio: +205.
  • Raul Rosas Jr. : - 225. ...
  • Chris Curtis: +110. Kelvin Gastelum: -130.
  • Michelle Waterson-Goez: +140. Luana Pinheiro: -165.
  • Karl Williams: -390.
Apr 8, 2023

Who has the biggest odds in UFC history? ›

Oddsmaker Upsets
-650 Werdum vs. +450 dos SantosUFC 902008.10.25
-625 Bader vs. +485 OrtizUFC 1322011.07.02
-625 Tukhugov vs. +470 BrenerUFC 2842023.02.11
-605 Sakara vs. +455 McFedriesUFC 652006.11.18
96 more rows

Who has Usman lost against? ›

UFC 286: Kamaru Usman Loses Welterweight Title Rematch To Leon Edwards. Usman had lost his title in August 2022 entering the fight with a -425 winning favour while odd-makers saw Leon as a +315 underdog.

How often do underdogs win in UFC? ›

How Often Do Underdogs Win in UFC? Betting underdogs win 30-40% of the time in the UFC. However, not all underdogs are the same.

Is Kamaru Usman one of the greatest? ›

Advertisem*nt. UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman has weighed in on who he rates as the greatest MMA fighters of all time. Usman, who is ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound by USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie, fighter sat down with ESPN and named four fighters who make his cut – one in his weight class.

Who is better Usman or Covington? ›

Kamaru Usman defeated Colby Covington by unanimous decision to retain the UFC welterweight championship at UFC 268 in New York on Saturday night. With the win, Usman improved to 20-1-0, and has won 19 fights in a row, including five title defenses. “I am the pound-for-pound best alive right now,” he said.

What were the odds for Woodley vs Usman? ›

Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman+105+23.2%▲
Tyron Woodley-145
UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale: Dos Anjos vs. Usman Nov 30th 2018
Kamaru Usman-215-12.1%▼
59 more rows

What were the Vegas odds for the Masvidal fight? ›

Drag to the right or left to see other available odds. The best odds available today for Jorge Masvidal is +380 at FanDuel and for Gilbert Burns -400 at Caesars.

What is the best to bet on UFC? ›

There are many different types of UFC bets you can place. The main, most popular bet is on the outright winner, which is a bet on who you believe will win the fight. Alternative bets may be on the round in which the fight will be won, the method of victory, or whether or not the fight will go the distance.

What are American odds in UFC? ›

American UFC Betting Odds

UFC odds are typically presented in American odds in the United States and Canada, though decimal and fractional odds are more predominant in Europe. American odds are usually represented by a positive or negative amount, like -210 or +1500 to denote the probability of winning a fight.


Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Aracelis Kilback

Last Updated:

Views: 5273

Rating: 4.3 / 5 (64 voted)

Reviews: 87% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Aracelis Kilback

Birthday: 1994-11-22

Address: Apt. 895 30151 Green Plain, Lake Mariela, RI 98141

Phone: +5992291857476

Job: Legal Officer

Hobby: LARPing, role-playing games, Slacklining, Reading, Inline skating, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Dance

Introduction: My name is Aracelis Kilback, I am a nice, gentle, agreeable, joyous, attractive, combative, gifted person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.