“Morocco were 200-1 to win the World Cup at the start of the tournament,” writes Craig Hinton. “To date, which eventual winner had the highest odds at the start of the tournament? And how often do the pre-tournament favourites win.”
We’ve only been able to find UK odds for every World Cup since 1966, so that’s our starting point for the purposes of this question. In that period, the most unlikely winners were both Italian. Marcello Lippi’s 2006 side were 8-1 before the tournament, behind the favourites, Brazil, and England among others. Italy went all the way to the final where they beat France – who, at 12-1, were an even longer shot. And no, we couldn’t find the odds on Zinedine Zidane ending his career by ramming his forehead into Marco Materazzi’s chest.
Going back to 1982, Enzo Bearzot’s Italy side suffered a dreadful buildup. In the previous 18 months they had won only two of 12 games, and those were laboured victories over Bulgaria and Luxembourg. Italy were priced at 18-1, seventh favourites, and struggled through the first group stage without winning a game.
Then, suddenly, it all clicked. Italy beat Argentina, Brazil, Poland and West Germany in style to win the trophy. Paolo Rossi, who hadn’t scored for his country in three years because of poor form and a ban for his part in the Totonero scandal, hit six goals in the last three games. The favourites for that tournament were Brazil, and that has been the case for most of the World Cups since 1966. It’s reasonable to assume that, come day one of the 2026 tournament, Brazil will be favourites, probably at 3-1.
Oddly, the Seleção’s victories have tended to happen when they are not favourites. They were not even the bookies’ choice in 1970 – at least not in the UK, where a flurry of bets on England in the fortnight before the tournament saw their odds shortened. Brazil were rated below France in 2002, only for Les Bleus to crash out in the group stage. Despite not reaching a final since, Brazil have started as favourites in 2006, 2014, 2018 and 2022.
The only time since 1966 that Brazil lived up to their pre-tournament billing was at the 1994 World Cup. That is one of only three times in 15 tournaments since 1966 that the favourite has won; West Germany in 1974 and Spain in 2010 were the others.
Here’s a list of the odds for the favourites and winners before each World Cup:
1966
Winners England 9-2 Favourites Brazil 7-4 (went out in group stage) Other notable odds West Germany 10-1 (runners-up), Portugal 20-1 (semi-finalists), North Korea 100-1 (quarter-finalists)
1970
Winners Brazil 7-2 Favourites England 3-1 (out in quarter-finals)
1974
Winners and favourites West Germany 9-4 Other notable odds Brazil and Italy 5-1 (joint 2nd fav), Netherlands 9-1 (finalists), Poland 28-1 (won third-place playoff)
1978
Winners Argentina 4-1 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 22-10 (out in second group stage) Other notable odds Scotland 8-1 (joint 4th fav), Tunisia 1000-1 (became first African team to win a World Cup match)
1982
Winners Italy 18-1 Favourites Brazil 15-8 (out in second group stage) Other notable odds Poland 25-1 (semi-finalists), France 33-1 (semi-finalists), Algeria 2000-1 (beat West Germany in group stage)
1986
Winners Argentina 7-2 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 10-3 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds West Germany 14-1 (runners-up), Uruguay 6-1 (last 16), Denmark 14-1 (last 16)
1990
Winners West Germany 6-1 (4th fav) Favourites Italy 3-1 (semi-finalists) Other notable odds Argentina 11-1 (runners-up), England 10-1 (semi-finalists), Cameroon 500-1 (quarter-finalists)
1994
Winners and favourites Brazil 3-1 Other notable odds Colombia 8-1 (out in group stage), Sweden 40-1 (semi-finalists), Bulgaria 50-1 (semi-finalists)
1998
Winners France 6-1 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 3-1 (runners-up) Other notable odds Croatia 66-1 (semi-finalists)
2002
Winners Brazil 13-2 (4th fav) Favourites France 4-1 (out in group stage) Other notable odds Argentina 5-1 (out in group stage), Turkey 100-1 (semi-finalists), South Korea 200-1 (semi-finalists), Senegal 300-1 (quarter-finalists)
2006
Winners Italy 8-1 Favourites Brazil 3-1 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds England 13-2 (quarter-finalists), France 12-1 (runners-up)
2010
Winners and favourites Spain 4-1 Other notable odds England 8-1 (out in last 16), Uruguay 100-1 (semi-finalists)
2014
Winners Germany 13-2 (joint 3rd fav) Favourites Brazil 3-1 (semi-finalists)
2018
Winners France 6-1 (3rd fav) Favourites Brazil 4-1 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds England 16-1 (semi-finalists), Croatia 33-1 (finalists)
2022
Winners (from) Argentina 11-2, France 6-1, Croatia 50-1, Morocco 200-1 Favourites Brazil 7-2 (quarter-finalists)
Big clubs with no players in Qatar
Every team in the Premier League has at least one player at the World Cup, with Blackburn being the highest-placed side with no representation. Who are the top-ranked side globally to not have any World Cup players?
— Steve Hyde (@StevenJamesHyde) November 29, 2022
It’s hard to find an objective way to judge this one, but let’s kick off with Mike Slattery. “Across the top tiers of the ‘big five’ European leagues, these are the only clubs with nobody at the World Cup.”
La Liga (second in Uefa’s coefficient): Girona (13th), Elche (20th)
Ligue 1 (3rd): Ajaccio (18th)
Serie A (4th): Empoli (13th), Monza (14th), Lecce (16th)
Looking at the Uefa coefficient for specific teams, Andy Brook nominates Shakhtar Donetsk in 24th place. Stéphane Aujean nominates Union Saint-Gilloise: “they are second in the Belgian league and topped their Europa League group”. USG also topped the table last season, losing out on the title in the playoffs in the division ranked eighth by Uefa’s coefficient.
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Here are a few more notable examples in Europe that we’ve dug out:
Eredivisie (6th): AZ Alkmaar (4th in the current table)
Portugal (7th): Casa Pia (5th)
Scotland (9th): Aberdeen (3rd)
Austria (10th): Sturm Graz (2nd)
Serbia (11th): Partizan Belgrade (2nd)
Turkey (12th): Adana Demirspor (3rd), Istanbul Basaksehir (5th)
Russia: Spartak Moscow (2nd), Rostov (3rd)
You can take your pick from that lot, but what of South America? Three of the top four in Brazil’s most recent season – Internacional, Fluminense and Corinthians – do not have a representative between them in Qatar. But perhaps the most famous name of all can be found in Argentina, where despite winning their 35th league title in October, Boca Juniors did not send a single player to the World Cup.
Journeymen turned pundits
Which footballer has turned the least successful playing career into a successful punditry career? e.g. is there anyone co-commentating on the World Cup who never even played above the second tier?
— Steve Hyde (@StevenJamesHyde) December 6, 2022
“I ended up watching some of the 2014 World Cup in Malaysia,” begins Rob Davies. “Amongst the pundits was Steve McMahon, who played at the World Cup for England, ex-Walsall Aussie striker Scott Ollernshaw and a bloke called Steve Darby. The highest level Darby played at was as a goalkeeper for Liverpool Schools. He did go on to manage a number of teams in Asia though.” He may also have had a brief spell at Tranmere, though it is not clear if he ever actually played for them.
Tom Aldous writes: “I’d suggest the man who actually introduced the role of the pundit, Jimmy Hill. He only played in the top flight in the last couple of years of his career at Fulham and that promotion was his only honour. Not a sniff of an international cap either.”
Knowledge archive
“What happens to World Cup balls used throughout the tournament,” asked Jonathan Wilson (not that one) in 2014.
In total 3,240 balls were used throughout the 2014 World Cup, 20 for each match – all printed with matchday personalisation (teams, date and venue) and each team were also given 20 training balls on arrival at their training camp in Brazil. So where do they go? “The balls are used after a tournament for souvenirs for the teams and referees, host cities, Fifa partners and the Fifa museum,” a Fifa spokesperson told us. Specifically Adidas, manufacturer of the ball, says: “For this World Cup we opted for all used matchballs from the games to be given to the marketing teams in those countries involved in that particular game. However, not all markets opted to take up this option. Each local market team is then encouraged to run a giveaway through social media to allow fans the chance to win the balls.”
Can you help?
“How many footballers can count the World Cup as their first – or only – major trophy?” asks Shamik Das.
Bayern Munich have a player in the squad for 3 out of the 4 World Cup semi finalists
— Col. In (@Iwasahighwayman) December 13, 2022
(Argentina the odd one out) has any club ever been represented by all of the last 4 in a pervious tournament?
“Lukas Podolski won the FA Cup or its equivalent in four different countries (Germany 2008, England 2014, Turkey 2016, Japan 2019),” notes Christoph Schwartz. “Is there anybody else with a similar record?”
— Jerry Higgins (@JerryHiggins86) December 13, 2022Croatia have reached the semi finals, despite only winning one match all tournament.
Has any team gone further with a similar or worse record?
“In which World Cup penalty shootout has there been the most Panenkas,” wonders Stefano Caricato.
— Frank (@fhodg9) December 13, 2022To date Croatia have played 9 World Cup knock-out games in their history (or 10 if you include the 3rd place playoff in 1998). 5 have gone to extra time.
Is 55.5% a record for a team with say 6 or more KO games? Or which nations go to ET the most?
“In the Watford v Hull game this weekend, Watford substituted a player who had himself been substituted on for a substitute,” writes Sean Cavany. “This made a substitution chain of four players: Hamza Choudhury went off for Joe Hungbo, who went off for Rey Manaj, who went off for Vakoun Bayo. Has this ever happened before?”
Have any goalkeeping clubmates ever played against each other in an international match?
— agatiefan (@AgaTieFan) December 13, 2022
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